Coronavirus: dramatic assessment in Italy, when will the peak of the pandemic take place?

Still dramatic situation in Italy: 627 new deaths were announced on Friday: this is the highest number of deaths in 24 hours recorded since the start of the pandemic in the country. While the country has been confined for 11 days, can we predict when the peak of the pandemic will take place in the country?

Coronavirus has now caused more than 4,000 deaths in Italy, more than in China, according to official figures. 

The question is when the peak will be reached, while the 60 million Italians have been confined for 11 days now. 

“We will not know exactly when the peak will be reached, but based on the date of the implementation of the restrictions, we can count on the next week or the next two weeks“, explains Angelo Borrelli, Chief of Protection Italian civil. “But we don’t have scientific data on this. There are only trends and estimates.”

“I have never felt so stressed in my life.” Lorenzo Grazioli Anesthesiologist

Lombardy, the most affected region: an anesthesiologist testifies

The Milan region, Lombardy, is still paying the heaviest price with more than half of the total deaths recorded since the start of the pandemic in Italy.

In Bergamo, north of Milan, the hospitals are overwhelmed. “I have never felt so stressed in my entire life,” said the intensive care anesthesiologist. “I’m quite used to moments of stress (…) But then, at this point, we realize that there are just not enough of us. We are a hundred anesthesiologists, and we do our best, but it’s not may not be enough.

According to figures from the Italian Higher Institute of Health, based on 3,200 registered deaths, the average age of patients is 78.5 years. And half of the people suffered from several other pathologies.

New restrictive measures

Faced with this constantly growing balance, the Italian government is considering new restrictive measures which could be adopted quickly.

In the evening, the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza signed a decree closing parks, green spaces and public gardens from March 21 to 24 throughout Italy, a measure already adopted by many municipalities before.

He also banned outdoor fun and sports activities, allowing people to exercise “individually, near his own home and respecting a minimum distance of one meter from other people“.

The governors of the northern regions, the richest in Italy, who are also the most affected by the epidemic, are still demanding the cessation of other economic activities and the deployment of the army to enforce these measures.


David T

David T is a french Medical student, during its free time, he is writing for The Medical Progress and helping us to understand better the Coronavirus.

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